Draft
Working thesis

What the theme research is testing

Cloud adoption can expand recurring revenue and utilization, but competitive intensity and customer optimization make incremental returns more important than headline growth.

Value chain

  • Semiconductors
  • Servers
  • Networking
  • Cloud platforms
  • Developer tools
  • Applications

Potential beneficiaries

  • Scaled platforms
  • Infrastructure enablers
  • Mission-critical software providers

Principal risks

  • Pricing pressure
  • Workload optimization
  • Capital intensity
  • Platform concentration

Monitoring questions

  • Is workload growth reaccelerating?
  • Where is pricing power durable?
  • Which layers earn the highest incremental returns?