Draft
Working thesis

What the theme research is testing

Sustained modernization can support select suppliers, while contract structure, program concentration, and execution determine whether revenue becomes attractive returns.

Value chain

  • Prime contractors
  • Electronic systems
  • Specialty components
  • Software
  • Maintenance

Potential beneficiaries

  • Qualified component suppliers
  • Secure communications providers
  • Modernization contractors

Principal risks

  • Budget changes
  • Program delays
  • Cost overruns
  • Customer concentration

Monitoring questions

  • Which programs have funded backlogs?
  • Where are qualification barriers highest?
  • Is execution improving?